Chapter 1: The Three Scenarios

On December 2006, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(DMK- a political party in Tamil Nadu) offered free color television sets in order to gain the citizens' votes. They are also producing brilliant and successful people such as Srinivasa Ramanujan, or Subbayya Sivasankaranarayana.


Another interesting fact about the Tamil is that within the past century a resistance group called the LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam) was also the first ones to practice suicide bombing.

What's so interesting about the fact stated above? I was honestly taken back that a modernizing country like Tamil had such a violent history. But while I was thinking about the Tamils I was reminded that all nations had some sort of bloody history. The Americans were the first ones to practice the atomic bombs on Japan, the Germans almost successfully genocide the Jews.

However, the Western countries continued to modernize and now portray a peaceful civilization. I see the Asian nations as the Western's history. The Asian countries are trying to modernize as well. If the West can become peaceful despite their violent past, then why can't Asia?

In this chapter, Mahbubani proposes three scenarios of how the world can develop into in the next fifty years. The March to Modernization, the retreat to the fortresses, or the triumph

The March to Modernity

I found this scenario was quite interesting. Mahbubani tells the readers that while he was growing up his family did not own a toilet. Instead they used a metal bin, where once a day a group of men would take the bin and replace it with a clean one. When his family received a flushing toilet, Mahbubani felt like his life was forever changed.

Because I grew up in a comfortable lifestyle, I don't think I appreciate things as much as my parents can. I grew up in a society where I was not embarrassed of my home. I was given childhood that was full of laughter.

As for my parents, they started working when they were children so they can help their parents support their family. After my parents to immigrated to Canada and got married, they bought a Ford 1986. It officially retired in 2006-2007. It took my dad 20 years to replace the old Ford car because:
1. My dad is cheap. We're not poor I think because of my dad's childhood, he like to spend money recklessly.
2. There were a lot of happy memories created in our old rusty Ford's car. I think my dad was truly thankful for all the help that the Ford had provide to him and his family.

The point I'm trying to get across is that Asian citizens have suffered for a long time without modernization. Now since there are modernizations in some of the Asian countries, the citizens can appreciate this new change in such a way that the Western citizens have forgotten how to.

Another example Mahbubani presented was the spread of mobile phones in India. The cell phones call rates in India is less than a penny a minute. It's incredible how one technology- the cell phone in this case- can contribute to the a enormous change to a developing country like India.

"Connectivity is productivity. If you connect people, they are more productive."

It obviously shows through the increase of monthly income from each family. As the incomes increase, the gross domestic product (GDP) has increased too. Asian families are starting to live a more comfortable lifestyle and I highly doubt that they're willing to throw away their new lifestyles for their old ones.

Already we're seeing the signs of modernization in the Asian countries. They have tasted the "forbidden fruit" and now they cannot get enough of it.

The Retreat into Fortresses

This scenario is one of my least favorite. History about political decisions is a topic I find boring so most the time I was thinking "if protectionism is so bad, why are Western nations using it?!"

Mahbubani's example presented the fact that protectionism has a negative effect on the West and the whole world. He accused the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act for causing the Depression after WWI. Overall, his message is "protectionism = problems = bad!"How I view protectionism is that the government is babying its own nation. In a long term run, I think protectionism is bad for the nation. It does not promote international competition where each country can compare, compete and improve their companies' products and services. Instead, it's like a "retreat to the fortress" because some citizens refuse to ache-knowledge the international competition.

However during recession, protectionism would be useful to the Western countries. It could create jobs and prevent job lost within the nation. Nevertheless, from world-wide perspective protectionism it will hurt developing countries. But if you can't help yourself then how do you expect to help others?

The Triumph of the West
The impression I gotten from this scenario (and future chapters) is that the Western countries are arrogant. After the cold-war, the only superpowers left were European Union (EU) and the United States. In their mind (from Mahbubani's description) they believed that they would dominate the world, while "...other nations would have to adapt and adjust to their wishes," and "...all they had to do was to become cultural clones of the West."

Obviously this scenario is very unlikely. In the current world there are several nations modernizing in their own way. For instance, China is modernizing quickly and is becoming more powerful.

Mahbubani provided three explanations why this is an unlikely scenario.
1.) The belief that the West triumph over the Soviet Union was because of its values.
2.) Any society at any stage of social/economic development could immediately transform into a liberal democracy.
3.) The belief that differences in culture did not matter because democracy was applicable to all societies.

In my perspective those three reasons are very idealistic. However, while remembering my vague history lessons from junior and senior high school, I cannot blame the West for coming up with those conclusions. In our history there were no countries that were successful in creating a communist nation. Soviet Union had just fallen, China was struggling and there have been nasty stories about North Korea. And look at the West- they were developed and most of the citizens lived a comfortable lifestyle.

However, learning from the Soviet Union's mistake, China is now growing as a communism country. Countries like Croatia and Serbia failed to bring democracy into their world because their leaders and their society was not ready for democracy.

I agree that the West was arrogant to think that democracy would triumph the world and the West would be the world's leaders... However, while nations are continuing to grow I believe that the West are learning from their mistakes and accepting the world as it is.